2014: Could It Be Worse?

Since long before this qualifying campaign began, I have had a great sense of impending doom. This was not just because all of my past experiences told me I should; it was also because of the feeling that this was it; this was the window of opportunity. If Canada were to miss out this time, the Greatest National Team ever assembled would go to waste, and the personnel losses would mean that we would be back to square one.

Was I right to feel this way? How is the player pool going to look come the 2014 cycle. Will Canada be forced to start Chris Pozniak at attacking midfield? Will Canada need to call Garret Kusch back from the training table to strike the ball?

As it turns out, no. I may not have been right to tear my hair. It may be too early for many Canada fans to try to think positive; but there really is no reason to suspect the 2014 team will look much weaker on paper than the current one.


Who is likely to return and who is as good as gone?

Here is the current pool; every player Dale Mitchell called (ex. Martinique).
- Included is the approximate age of the player in 2014.
- In brackets is a player of similar age during the 2010 cycle (or before).

Very Likely to Return
Julian de Guzman, 33 (same age as Daniel Imhof, circa. 2010)
Marcel de Jong, 27
André Hainault, 28
Atiba Hutchinson, 31 (Patrice Bernier)

Likely
Iain Hume, 30 (Bernier)
Issey Nakajima-Farran, 30 (Bernier)

Probable
David Edgar, 27
Lars Hirschfeld, 35 (Pat Onstad, circa. 2003)
Dejan Jakovic, 29
Will Johnson, 27
Mike Klukowski, 33 (Jim Brennan)
Nik Ledgerwood, 29
Jaime Peters, 27

Possible
Asmir Begovic, 27
Dwayne De Rosario, 36 (Tomasz Radzinski)
Rob Friend, 33 (Corazzin & Peschisolido, circa 2004)
Kevin McKenna, 34 (Randy Samuel, circa. 1998)
Josh Simpson, 31 (Bernier)
Joshua Wagenaar, 29

Unlikely
Patrice Bernier, 34
Adrian Cann, 33
Rhian Dodds, 34
Ali Gerba, 32
Kevin Harmse, 30
Olivier Occean, 32
Tam Nsaliwa, 32
Chris Pozniak, 33
Adrian Serioux, 35
Kenny Stamatopoulos, 34
Greg Sutton, 37

Very Unlikely
Jim Brennan, 37
Richard Hastings,37
Daniel Imhof, 36
Ante Jazic, 38
Pat Onstad, 46
Tomasz Radzinski, 40
Paul Stalteri, 36


Using only the players Probable or better, this would be a potential lineup.

------------------Hirschfeld

----------Hainault-----------Edgar

Ledgerwood-----------------------------de Jong

---------Hutchinson--------de Guzman

--Peters---------------------------Nakajima-Farran

------------Hume------------Johnson


Adding Possible players to the above, this would be a potential lineup.

-----------------------Hirschfeld

---------------Hainault----------McKenna
--Ledgerwood------------------------------de Jong

--------------Hutchinson--------de Guzman

Nakajima-Farran-------------------------De Rosario

---------------Johnson
---------------------------------Friend

Hume
Peters
Simpson
Edgar
Jakovic
Klukowski
Begovic/Wagenaar


Interestingly, even without adding any new recruits, the 2014 squad looks fairly complete, though not stellar.

Obviously, there would be room for improvement, but the only true shortage is at Centre Forward. Olivier Occean and Ali Gerba will be both be thirty-two before the 2014 World Cup. Rob Friend will be 33. Canada has rarely, if ever, had an effective striker of that age. Paul Peschisolido and Carlo Corazzin were both 33 when they ground to a halt with Canada in 2004. Dale Mitchell played fairly effectively to 35, but largely played in midfield toward the end of his career. John Catliff and Alex Bunbury were long retired from internationals by 32.

It is true that Canada may have wasted the prime of Julian de Guzman and Dwayne De Rosario, but both are decent bets to carry on to the next cycle. It is comforting to note the comparables: de Guzman will be the age in the 2014 cycle that Daniel Imhof is now; De Rosario will be the age that Tomasz Radzinski is now. Both will likely change as players, but neither should be written off.


Possible Additions: early candidates

Dale Mitchell has maintained a veteran squad in this cycle, rarely including younger players in his selection. Despite that, his pool included 4 players from the 2007 U-20 squad and several more from the 2005 team. It is next to impossible to project the future of players who will not turn 20 until 2011, but one has to assume that several players will be added to the squad between now and 2014. Ages are as of 2014.

Nana Attakora, 25 D
Brandon Bonifacio, 25 M
Mike D'Agostino, 27 M
Ethan Gage, 23 D/M
Tyler Hemming, 29 D/M
David Hoilett, 24 F
Simeon Jackson, 27 F/M
Paris Nakajima-Farran, 25 D/M
Andrew Ornoch, 29 F/M
Tosaint Ricketts, 27 F/M
Tyler Rosenlund, 28 M
Adam Street, 23 K


2014 Squad: early estimate, very early estimate

As nice as it would be to imagine that great young players might fall from the sky, very few players who are not already on the radar at this moment (October 2008) will be involved in the next qualifying cycle. This time out, Mitchell called in 29 players for qualifying matches, and virtually all of them were kicking around 4 years ago. Coming into 2008, 19 had played in previous qualifiers; 1 had debuted for the Senior Team before the last cycle, but was not used in qualifiers; 2 had played for previous U20 teams (1 in 2001, 1 in 2003); and 3 were involved in a series of U20 friendlies in 2003 and 2004.* That leaves only three of 29 players who had yet to be involved in a National Team program by 2004. These were Adrian Cann, Dejan Jakovic and Issey Nakajima-Farran. So, I wouldn’t stake my life on calling the entire future lineup; but, I also wouldn’t expect 30 new players to appear.

Keepers
Asmir Begovic
Lars Hirschfeld
Adam Street
Joshua Wagenaar

Defenders
Central
David Edgar
André Hainault
Dejan Jakovic
Mike Klukowski
Kevin McKenna
Wide
Nana Attakora
Marcel de Jong
Tyler Hemming
Nik Ledgerwood
Paris Nakajima-Farran

Midfielders
Central
Julian de Guzman
Ethan Gage
Atiba Hutchinson
Tyler Rosenlund
Mike D'Agostino
Wide
Dwayne De Rosario
Simeon Jackson
Issey Nakajima-Farran
Jaime Peters
Josh Simpson

Forwards
Rob Friend
David Hoilett
Iain Hume
Will Johnson
Andrew Ornoch
Tosaint Ricketts

Off the top of my head, this pool looks very promising. I would say – just spit-balling – that: the wide midfielders and keepers look like a wash compared to this year’s squad; the wide defenders and central midfielders look weaker; and the forwards and central defenders could be significantly stronger. At the very least, I think we can imagine being in with a fighting chance in the next cycle. Some comfort, though not much.

The imperative is to cut ties with the older generation of players, those Very Unlikely to be around, as well as several of the Unlikely set. Especially since friendlies will likely be hard to come by for the next two years at least. The CSA can set the tone for the next four years by dimissing with thanks – or not – the old guard in advance of the Jamaica match.


*
- 1 debuted for ST before last cycle, was not used in qualifiers = Rob Friend
- 2 played for previous U20 teams = 2001, Ali Gerba; 2003, Nik Ledgerwood
- 3 in U20 friendlies 03&04 = Marcel de Jong, Andre Hainault, Josh Wagenaar

Canada v Honduras: Thoughts in Advance of the Match

It is a little hard to blame Dale Mitchell for his selections this time out – given the raft of forced absences to the squad. No team in CONCACAF save Mexico (but including the US) would look great with this many absences in midfield; arguably Canada is missing six of its ten top midfielders*. It is a little hard to blame Mitchell for his choices, but not impossible.

The problem comes down to the choice to include Kevin Harmse, Chris Pozniak and Dejan Jakovic. Obviously, under normal circumstances, none of these players would have been included – but, given the circumstances, Mitchell has genuinely been forced to move this far down the depth chart. In fact, in dire circumstances, it is not too hard to come up with a case for including each player. Harmse brings some steel and has performed decently of late in central-defence. Pozniak is a Swiss-Army Knife (or the off-brand-dollar-store-Chinese-import equivalent of a Swiss-Army Knife). Jakovic is likewise flexible, and additionally could step into central defence in a pinch/disaster. Ultimately, Mitchell has chosen all three players because he has rightly seen a severe shortage in the centre of midfield, and wrongly over-compensated for the shortage.

The upshot of this over-compensation is that Canada is left short at attacking midfielder, centre forward and on the wings (though, one must keep in mind that, despite reams of evidence to the contrary, Mitchell does still believe Patrice Bernier is a winger.)

Another (read: A qualified) Head Coach would have made the glaringly obvious choice to include Will Johnson in place of Harmse or Jakovic, and thus shored up all of the shortages in Mitchell’s selection. Which means, once Mitchell has made his standard like-for-like substitutions (ie Iain Hume for Tomasz Radzinski and Ali Gerba for Rob Friend) Canada will once again be left without a single attacking substitute.

- As dire as the midfield situation will be against Honduras, it will be interesting to see if Atiba Hutchinson can step up and become a dominant force. He sees little of the ball when he shares the centre with Julian de Guzman; and often seems lost when Dwayne De Rosario joins them, playing centrally. With neither in the lineup Hutchinson has a real chance to stamp his influence on the match. A dominant performance from him is Canada’s best chance of taking three points in Honduras.

For what its worth, here are the chances that Canada can qualify for the hex:

With a victory at Honduras, 23 of 81 possible outcomes would see Canada level on better on points; 14 of 81 permutations would see Canada ahead, 9 level (making goal differential key).

With a draw at Honduras, 3 of 81 possible outcomes see Canada level or better; 1 ahead, 2 level.

With a loss at Honduras, chances are nil.


Ideal Lineup (Assumes McKenna understudies at Striker)

---------------Hirschfeld

-------Hainault-----Hastings

Stalteri-------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson--Bernier

Ledgerwood-------------Radzinski

----------Gerba------Friend


Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

---------Hainault-----Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson----Harmse

--------------Radzinski
Bernier------------------------de Jong

----------------Friend

* The obvious absentees are: Julian de Guzman; Dwayne De Rosario; Josh Simpson; Issey Nakajima-Farran; and Daniel Imhof. The sixth, arguably is Adrian Serioux, though one could certainly argue the merits of Tam Nsaliwa (not Jim Brennan).