- So, occasionally doing research is a mistake. Here I was trying to feel better about Canada’s chances on Wednesday night. Sure, they must win in Mexico – but at least the match isn’t at Azteca. Well, as it turns out, upon closer inspection, Canada is no better off at Tuxtla Gutierrez.
In the last five years, Mexico has 17 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss on home soil (with 70 goals for; 12 goals against). At Azteca, 6 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss (16 goals for; 4 goals against). Elsewhere in Mexico, 11 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses (54 goals for; 8 goals against). If anything they’ve performed better away from the big city. Away from Azteca, they’ve had an average goal differential of 3.5, more than double their average differential at Azteca. (Of course, they tend to save Azteca for tougher opponents; the average FIFA rank of their opponents there was 20 spots higher.)
Worse news: Mexico has pounded on middling teams like Canada everywhere they’ve hosted them. Against teams ranked 56 to 106 (25 spots either side of Canada’s current rank) they are 7-0-0 (22 goals for, only 4 against).
- I was amused by Dale Mitchell’s comment, that he is, “contemplating getting [Dwayne De Rosario] out on the wing to try to get him in a 1-v-1 situation”. Like the Titanic’s Captain was contemplating steering around the iceberg.
Luckily, Mitchell may have no choice but to improve his squad choices against Mexico. As far as I know (as of 11 pm Tuesday) he will need to add Issey Nakajima-Farran and Oliver Occean to the match day squad in place of Patrice Bernier and Tomasz Radzinski. By my count, that is two attacking players added and one subtracted (I’m sure Mitchell would prefer fewer, but I digress).
- The real coffin nail from the debacle on Saturday was that Honduras gained 3 road points. In a sense, Canada would have been better to lose to Jamaica and draw Honduras. In all likelihood Jamaica would never have reached 9 points regardless; whereas, Honduras is now virtually guaranteed 8 points, and with even a little luck they’ll take ten.
- The lineups are pretty speculative: they assume Issey is healthy and Mitchell is an idiot.
Ideal Lineup
---------------Hirschfeld
--------Serioux------Klukowski
Stalteri----------------------Brennan
-------Hutchinson--de Guzman
Issey---------------------De Rosario
---------Gerba------Friend
Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup
---------------Hirschfeld
--------Serioux------------Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski
-------Hutchinson----de Guzman
------------- De Rosario
Issey------------------------Brennan
---------------Friend
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Sunday, September 7, 2008
What Can A National Team Head Coach Do?
Let’s be honest, a national team head coach cannot do a lot to affect his team’s success. With limited time and limited access to his players, he is not going to have a great effect on the quality of players on the pitch. In fact, even the tactical instruction that he imparts will not have a huge impact given these constraints. For the most part, his players will only have the quality and the tactical knowledge they bring with them from their club experience. This is doubly true for a Canadian coach, given that he will have greater time and access limitations than most.
What does that leave? The only cards the international coach has to play are squad selection, substitution, and inspiration. These are the limited tools available to him to separate his squad from the fray. It is Dale Mitchell’s total failure in use of these tools that warrants his immediate removal as the Head Coach of the Canadian National Team.
Against Honduras, Mitchell’s squad choices – both starters and bench – were poor, and were exposed to disastrous effect. The tandem of Adrian Serioux and Richard Hastings was ineffective throughout. Mitchell should not really be blamed for performance: Serioux repeatedly lost the plot completely, and both were terrible closing players down. However, had Mitchell asked himself, ‘who are my best defenders’ or ‘who is most important to their club’, he would have landed on Jim Brennan alongside Mike Klukowski, with one playing centrally. He was stuck with Serioux, perhaps, but including Brennan would have been a marked improvement.
Mitchell’s selection of Patrice Bernier, and, more vitally, his positioning on the right flank was ultimately ruinous. Bernier is simply not effective as a true winger – he rarely plays outside of central midfield for his club – and, as a result, the right side was a black hole, narrowing the Canadian attack, and allowing Honduras to slide its left-sided players more to the centre in defence, disrupting Canada’s dominant central players. Mitchell could easily have chosen Bernier and played him centrally, moving Julian de Guzman forward, sliding Dwayne De Rosario to the left, and swapping Radzinski to the right. He didn’t, and the error was compounded when Tomasz Radzinski was removed due to injury, and Iain Hume – the only winger on the bench – was forced into the match early into a rare, awkward stint on the left.
This pointed to the worst mistake Mitchell made against Honduras: the substitutes bench. Mitchell was always going to make a striker for striker swap, and Radzinski and Hume essentially share one spot, so for all intents and purposes Canada did not even have one extra attacker or midfielder. When Canada went down a goal in the 56th minute, they did not have a single card to play for offence. True, the camp squad didn’t offer many options – since Issey Nakajima-Farran was clearly out of form – but if Mitchell had selected Oliver Occean for match day, he could have subbed Occean in for Bernier and moved to a 4-4-2 with De Rosario and Hume on the wings. The obvious additional question is why Nakajima-Farran wasn’t replaced in camp. True, Josh Simpson has yet to return from injury, and Jamie Peters is in no man’s land, but Will Johnson could have been brought in a moment’s notice, and, as it turned out, could have filled a vital role.
Finally, it would be difficult to imagine a less inspirational figure than Dale Mitchell. Before the match Dale Mitchell was visibly the most nervous man in the building; high in the running for most nervous man in the country. During the match, he shuffles impassively, but does nothing to rally or embolden his team. The contrast between Mitchell and Stephen Hart, who was so forceful and animated when he led Canada in its only recent positive form, could not have been more stark.
Yes, there are terrible institutional problems, both at the CSA and at CONCACAF, that make the job difficult, perhaps impossible, for a Canadian coach. The consistently arbitrary and unfair group draws; the lack of friendly matches; the lack of funds; the poor venue selection: these, and other, challenges may make it impossible for Canadian squads to qualify. At the same time, it is hard not to imagine that a Rene Simoes-led Canada would have banked four or six points by now.
Give Dale Mitchell a shot to pull off a miracle in Mexico. After he fails there, fire him, promote Stephen Hart to head coach, and bring John Limniatis – currently the only successful Canadian-born coach in football not named Frank Yallop – into the program as an occasional assistant coach.
What does that leave? The only cards the international coach has to play are squad selection, substitution, and inspiration. These are the limited tools available to him to separate his squad from the fray. It is Dale Mitchell’s total failure in use of these tools that warrants his immediate removal as the Head Coach of the Canadian National Team.
Against Honduras, Mitchell’s squad choices – both starters and bench – were poor, and were exposed to disastrous effect. The tandem of Adrian Serioux and Richard Hastings was ineffective throughout. Mitchell should not really be blamed for performance: Serioux repeatedly lost the plot completely, and both were terrible closing players down. However, had Mitchell asked himself, ‘who are my best defenders’ or ‘who is most important to their club’, he would have landed on Jim Brennan alongside Mike Klukowski, with one playing centrally. He was stuck with Serioux, perhaps, but including Brennan would have been a marked improvement.
Mitchell’s selection of Patrice Bernier, and, more vitally, his positioning on the right flank was ultimately ruinous. Bernier is simply not effective as a true winger – he rarely plays outside of central midfield for his club – and, as a result, the right side was a black hole, narrowing the Canadian attack, and allowing Honduras to slide its left-sided players more to the centre in defence, disrupting Canada’s dominant central players. Mitchell could easily have chosen Bernier and played him centrally, moving Julian de Guzman forward, sliding Dwayne De Rosario to the left, and swapping Radzinski to the right. He didn’t, and the error was compounded when Tomasz Radzinski was removed due to injury, and Iain Hume – the only winger on the bench – was forced into the match early into a rare, awkward stint on the left.
This pointed to the worst mistake Mitchell made against Honduras: the substitutes bench. Mitchell was always going to make a striker for striker swap, and Radzinski and Hume essentially share one spot, so for all intents and purposes Canada did not even have one extra attacker or midfielder. When Canada went down a goal in the 56th minute, they did not have a single card to play for offence. True, the camp squad didn’t offer many options – since Issey Nakajima-Farran was clearly out of form – but if Mitchell had selected Oliver Occean for match day, he could have subbed Occean in for Bernier and moved to a 4-4-2 with De Rosario and Hume on the wings. The obvious additional question is why Nakajima-Farran wasn’t replaced in camp. True, Josh Simpson has yet to return from injury, and Jamie Peters is in no man’s land, but Will Johnson could have been brought in a moment’s notice, and, as it turned out, could have filled a vital role.
Finally, it would be difficult to imagine a less inspirational figure than Dale Mitchell. Before the match Dale Mitchell was visibly the most nervous man in the building; high in the running for most nervous man in the country. During the match, he shuffles impassively, but does nothing to rally or embolden his team. The contrast between Mitchell and Stephen Hart, who was so forceful and animated when he led Canada in its only recent positive form, could not have been more stark.
Yes, there are terrible institutional problems, both at the CSA and at CONCACAF, that make the job difficult, perhaps impossible, for a Canadian coach. The consistently arbitrary and unfair group draws; the lack of friendly matches; the lack of funds; the poor venue selection: these, and other, challenges may make it impossible for Canadian squads to qualify. At the same time, it is hard not to imagine that a Rene Simoes-led Canada would have banked four or six points by now.
Give Dale Mitchell a shot to pull off a miracle in Mexico. After he fails there, fire him, promote Stephen Hart to head coach, and bring John Limniatis – currently the only successful Canadian-born coach in football not named Frank Yallop – into the program as an occasional assistant coach.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Personal Reflections: Before Canada v. Honduras
This must win match (and make no mistake, it is a must win) has me a little stressed. That may be why, today, I am questioning the tried and true; or a least, the tried and somewhat factual.
I think – despite past successes in the formation – it is time for Canada to take a one match hiatus from the 4-5-1. Given the decent form (either for club or country) of three strikers, the lack of good options for the fifth midfield spot, and the need to play to win, Canada should employ a 4-4-2 versus the Hondurans.
With Daniel Imhof unavailable, Issey Nakajima-Farran out of form, Iain Hume reserved for late-match use, and Patrice Bernier worsening by the day (I know this is harsh, but my heart sank a little when his name was announced before the Jamaica match) it is time to see what Ali Gerba and Rob Friend can do as a tandem force.
Moving beyond the midfield, my second source of stress is at the back. Against Jamaica, my heart sank further when Richard Hastings was announced. As the match wore on this feeling did not lessen as the opponent had an uncomforting amount of success inside the 18. I know that CONCACAF opponents are not generally known for their quality in the air (and Jamaica was no different) but the Canadian central defenders were notably weak on balls played to heads. Again, I know Germany is not on the qualifying schedule, and this weakness might not affect Canadian’s chances, but it may affect the health of my heart tissue.
I understand, and appreciate, that coach Dale Mitchell likes how Hastings moves the ball – and this is a nice quality to have – but not at the expense of sound marking. Given Kevin McKenna’s club status, I would call for an 85% chance of Hastings around 8pm in Montreal, and a 70% chance of a Hastings - Adrian Serioux combination. I will understand the choice, but I sure won’t love it.
Source of stress number three is the keeper situation. This could easily be source of stress number one, but I am trying not to think about it. Ultimately, I don’t think Mitchell can be faulted for his selection no matter who he chooses. There are no perfect options here. Prayer is likely the one I’ll choose.
Source of stress number four was added to the mix just this morning. Through the Voyageurs board I was linked to a YouTube video of goals from past Honduras – Canada matches; I was stuck with terror by more than just the hairstyles. Honduras has been good for at least one penalty kick per match. I had to stop watching before seeing Amado Guevara do his thing. Not a good feeling.
So, now that you’ve read all of this, have a good day, and a great match. For what it’s worth, and on the upside, I genuinely feel that eight points will be good enough to advance in second from this group. Check out group 1 from 2006 qualifying for a comparable situation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CONCACAF)
Ideal 4-4-2 Lineup
---------------Hirschfeld
--------Serioux------Klukowski
Stalteri----------------------Brennan
-------Hutchinson--de Guzman
Radzinski------------------De Rosario
---------Gerba------Friend
Less than Ideal 4-5-1 Lineup
---------------Hirschfeld
--------Serioux------Klukowski
Stalteri----------------------Brennan
-------Hutchinson--Bernier
--------------de Guzman
Radzinski------------------De Rosario
---------------Friend
Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup
------------------Onstad
--------Serioux------------Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski
-------Hutchinson----de Guzman
------------- De Rosario
Bernier ---------------------Radzinski
---------------Friend
I think – despite past successes in the formation – it is time for Canada to take a one match hiatus from the 4-5-1. Given the decent form (either for club or country) of three strikers, the lack of good options for the fifth midfield spot, and the need to play to win, Canada should employ a 4-4-2 versus the Hondurans.
With Daniel Imhof unavailable, Issey Nakajima-Farran out of form, Iain Hume reserved for late-match use, and Patrice Bernier worsening by the day (I know this is harsh, but my heart sank a little when his name was announced before the Jamaica match) it is time to see what Ali Gerba and Rob Friend can do as a tandem force.
Moving beyond the midfield, my second source of stress is at the back. Against Jamaica, my heart sank further when Richard Hastings was announced. As the match wore on this feeling did not lessen as the opponent had an uncomforting amount of success inside the 18. I know that CONCACAF opponents are not generally known for their quality in the air (and Jamaica was no different) but the Canadian central defenders were notably weak on balls played to heads. Again, I know Germany is not on the qualifying schedule, and this weakness might not affect Canadian’s chances, but it may affect the health of my heart tissue.
I understand, and appreciate, that coach Dale Mitchell likes how Hastings moves the ball – and this is a nice quality to have – but not at the expense of sound marking. Given Kevin McKenna’s club status, I would call for an 85% chance of Hastings around 8pm in Montreal, and a 70% chance of a Hastings - Adrian Serioux combination. I will understand the choice, but I sure won’t love it.
Source of stress number three is the keeper situation. This could easily be source of stress number one, but I am trying not to think about it. Ultimately, I don’t think Mitchell can be faulted for his selection no matter who he chooses. There are no perfect options here. Prayer is likely the one I’ll choose.
Source of stress number four was added to the mix just this morning. Through the Voyageurs board I was linked to a YouTube video of goals from past Honduras – Canada matches; I was stuck with terror by more than just the hairstyles. Honduras has been good for at least one penalty kick per match. I had to stop watching before seeing Amado Guevara do his thing. Not a good feeling.
So, now that you’ve read all of this, have a good day, and a great match. For what it’s worth, and on the upside, I genuinely feel that eight points will be good enough to advance in second from this group. Check out group 1 from 2006 qualifying for a comparable situation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CONCACAF)
Ideal 4-4-2 Lineup
---------------Hirschfeld
--------Serioux------Klukowski
Stalteri----------------------Brennan
-------Hutchinson--de Guzman
Radzinski------------------De Rosario
---------Gerba------Friend
Less than Ideal 4-5-1 Lineup
---------------Hirschfeld
--------Serioux------Klukowski
Stalteri----------------------Brennan
-------Hutchinson--Bernier
--------------de Guzman
Radzinski------------------De Rosario
---------------Friend
Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup
------------------Onstad
--------Serioux------------Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski
-------Hutchinson----de Guzman
------------- De Rosario
Bernier ---------------------Radzinski
---------------Friend
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