Canada v Honduras: Thoughts in Advance of the Match

It is a little hard to blame Dale Mitchell for his selections this time out – given the raft of forced absences to the squad. No team in CONCACAF save Mexico (but including the US) would look great with this many absences in midfield; arguably Canada is missing six of its ten top midfielders*. It is a little hard to blame Mitchell for his choices, but not impossible.

The problem comes down to the choice to include Kevin Harmse, Chris Pozniak and Dejan Jakovic. Obviously, under normal circumstances, none of these players would have been included – but, given the circumstances, Mitchell has genuinely been forced to move this far down the depth chart. In fact, in dire circumstances, it is not too hard to come up with a case for including each player. Harmse brings some steel and has performed decently of late in central-defence. Pozniak is a Swiss-Army Knife (or the off-brand-dollar-store-Chinese-import equivalent of a Swiss-Army Knife). Jakovic is likewise flexible, and additionally could step into central defence in a pinch/disaster. Ultimately, Mitchell has chosen all three players because he has rightly seen a severe shortage in the centre of midfield, and wrongly over-compensated for the shortage.

The upshot of this over-compensation is that Canada is left short at attacking midfielder, centre forward and on the wings (though, one must keep in mind that, despite reams of evidence to the contrary, Mitchell does still believe Patrice Bernier is a winger.)

Another (read: A qualified) Head Coach would have made the glaringly obvious choice to include Will Johnson in place of Harmse or Jakovic, and thus shored up all of the shortages in Mitchell’s selection. Which means, once Mitchell has made his standard like-for-like substitutions (ie Iain Hume for Tomasz Radzinski and Ali Gerba for Rob Friend) Canada will once again be left without a single attacking substitute.

- As dire as the midfield situation will be against Honduras, it will be interesting to see if Atiba Hutchinson can step up and become a dominant force. He sees little of the ball when he shares the centre with Julian de Guzman; and often seems lost when Dwayne De Rosario joins them, playing centrally. With neither in the lineup Hutchinson has a real chance to stamp his influence on the match. A dominant performance from him is Canada’s best chance of taking three points in Honduras.

For what its worth, here are the chances that Canada can qualify for the hex:

With a victory at Honduras, 23 of 81 possible outcomes would see Canada level on better on points; 14 of 81 permutations would see Canada ahead, 9 level (making goal differential key).

With a draw at Honduras, 3 of 81 possible outcomes see Canada level or better; 1 ahead, 2 level.

With a loss at Honduras, chances are nil.


Ideal Lineup (Assumes McKenna understudies at Striker)

---------------Hirschfeld

-------Hainault-----Hastings

Stalteri-------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson--Bernier

Ledgerwood-------------Radzinski

----------Gerba------Friend


Mitchell-being-Mitchell Lineup

---------------Hirschfeld

---------Hainault-----Hastings
Stalteri---------------------------Klukowski

-------Hutchinson----Harmse

--------------Radzinski
Bernier------------------------de Jong

----------------Friend

* The obvious absentees are: Julian de Guzman; Dwayne De Rosario; Josh Simpson; Issey Nakajima-Farran; and Daniel Imhof. The sixth, arguably is Adrian Serioux, though one could certainly argue the merits of Tam Nsaliwa (not Jim Brennan).